The political landscape is rife with speculation, and the upcoming Osun State Governorship Election in August 2026 is no exception, particularly regarding the potential candidacy of the current National Secretary of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Ajibola Basiru. However, a critical analysis of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's recent statement and the broader political calculations strongly suggests that Basiru will not be allowed to throw his hat into the Osun gubernatorial ring. This decision, if it materializes, will be a calculated move aimed at solidifying President Tinubu's grip on the APC national structure and ensuring a seamless path to his second term in 2027.
President Tinubu's statement during the inauguration of the newly appointed National Chairman of the APC, Mr. Yilwatda, was particularly revealing. He emphatically told the new chairman, "I handed a plan to the former Chairman. So, work very closely with Our National Secretary (Ajibola Basiru), he will guide you. Take him as your consultant...." This seemingly benign advice carries significant strategic weight.
The immediate implication of this statement is the indispensable role Basiru plays within the APC's national hierarchy. With the former National Chairman, Ganduje, having resigned and Mr. Yilwatda being new to the intricacies of the party's national operations, Basiru emerges as the sole custodian of the "plan" President Tinubu referred to. This "plan" is undoubtedly the strategic blueprint for the APC's success, particularly in the run-up to the 2027 general elections where President Tinubu will be seeking re-election.
To allow Basiru to depart from his crucial national role to pursue a gubernatorial ambition in Osun State would be a significant strategic misstep for President Tinubu. Here's why:
1. Continuity and Execution of the "Plan": The President's direct instruction to the new chairman to "work very closely" with Basiru and "take him as your consultant" underscores Basiru's deep understanding of the party's strategic initiatives. This isn't just about party administration; it's about the intricate political machinery required to deliver a second term for the President. Pulling Basiru out of this vital role would create a vacuum at a critical juncture, potentially derailing the execution of the President's carefully laid plans.
2. Stabilizing the Party Leadership: The recent change in the APC National Chairmanship signals a period of transition. Having a seasoned hand like Basiru, who is intimately familiar with the party's internal workings and the President's vision, provides much-needed stability. His presence ensures that the new chairman can hit the ground running without an extended learning curve, which would be detrimental with the 2027 elections looming. Removing him would introduce further instability and could open the door to internal friction or missteps.
3. Preventing Political Gang-up and Maintaining Cohesion: The 2027 elections are expected to be highly contested, with various political forces and alignments already taking shape. President Tinubu needs a cohesive and well-oiled party machinery to counter any potential "gang-up" against him. Basiru, as National Secretary, is central to managing party affairs, coordinating strategies, and ensuring unity within the APC. His departure for a state-level contest, even if successful, would dilute the strength of the national team at a time when maximum focus and coordination are paramount.
4. The 'Consultant' Role: More Than Just an Advisor: The term "consultant" used by President Tinubu is not merely a polite suggestion; it signifies a level of trust and reliance that goes beyond typical party roles. It implies that Basiru holds institutional memory and strategic insights that are irreplaceable in the immediate future. Sacrificing this critical asset for a state election, no matter how important, would be counterproductive to the larger presidential ambition.
5. Osun's Political Landscape and a Controlled Play: While Osun State is politically significant, President Tinubu's primary focus will undoubtedly be on national victory in 2027. He will likely prioritize installing a loyal and effective state leadership through other means, rather than disrupting his national team. It's plausible that other capable candidates within the Osun APC chapter, who are equally loyal, will be groomed and supported to contest the governorship, allowing Basiru to remain in his pivotal national position.
In conclusion, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's recent pronouncements about Ajibola Basiru are not just casual remarks; they are strategic signals of his intentions. The need for a capable and knowledgeable hand at the helm of the APC's national secretariat, especially as the party gears up for the crucial 2027 presidential election, far outweighs the benefits of Basiru contesting the Osun State governorship in 2026. Basiru's deep understanding of the President's "plan" and his critical role in navigating the party through this transitional phase make him an indispensable asset. Therefore, it is highly analytical to conclude that President Tinubu will not permit Ajibola Basiru to leave his national duty for a gubernatorial aspiration, as doing so would compromise the very foundation upon which the President intends to build his second-term victory.