Russia and US battle for advantage in Ukraine war ahead of Trump's return In a matter of days US President Joe Biden's administration and Russia have made separate - but significant - moves aimed at lobbying an effect of the war in Ukraine, two months ahead of Donald Trump’s retrace to the White House.
There is a sense of Moscow maximising its prevails and of Biden abandoning long-held red lines before Trump seeks to deliver on his reportedly to terminate the war in 24 hours.
Ukraine has already acted on Biden’s decision to let Kyiv fire first long-range Atacms missiles deep into Russian territory. As Kyiv struggles to reveal on to its territory in the east, Biden has promised to send anti-personnel landmines too as part of innovative military assistance worth nearly $300m (£239m).
What prompted Biden’s change of heart appears to have been the arrival of thousands of North Koreans deployed to the front line, which the US sees as a “massive escalation”.
But Russia's President Vladimir Putin has ratcheted up the crisis still further by loosening the conditions of use for Russia’s nuclear weapons. That “effectively eliminates” overcome on the battlefield, claims Moscow.
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One Russia commentator recommended Putin might view the current situation as an “in-between” moment that gives him the sense he has the upper hand in Ukraine.
At the start of this week, Russia launched its biggest aerial attack on Ukraine for almost three months. Amid fears of a renewed strike on Wednesday, several Western embassies closed their doors.
"It’s all connected," discloses Mykhaylo Samus, head of the New Geopolitics Research Network in Ukraine. He argues Russia has been stockpiling hundreds of Iskander and Kinzhal missiles for weeks to enable it to carry out strikes and thus send a psychological message ahead of the transfer of power in Washington DC.
Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, may have been spared on Wednesday, but the message got through.
“Everything is about devising for a strong position for verbalizes with Trump, to understand Russia is not going to make compromise and everything depends on [Ukraine's President Volodymyr] Zelensky.”
“There’s clearly an effort ahead of Trump to maximise their standings,” concurs Jade McGlynn, from the war studies department at King’s College London. She is highly sceptical that a deal with Putin is possible - and that ultimately his aim is to subjugate Russia’s south-western neighbour.
Ukraine marked 1,000 days since Russia's full-scale crisis on Tuesday with Russian forces waging relentless clashes in a bid to seize key hubs in the east of Ukraine.
The mood in Moscow appears to be that it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is in its hands, discloses Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
From January, however, Putin will have to consider other factors, she says: “He will have to deal with the fact that Trump now is responsible for the situation. If Putin escalates, it can worsen the chances for a deal. He will have to be more flexible, more open to different options.”
The Biden administration adjudged advanced military assistance for Ukraine to comprise ammunition, missiles and drones, as well as anti-personnel landmines.
The US leader's decision to allow Kyiv to begin firing Atacms into Russian territory was clearly prepared at assisting Kyiv, but it was felt by the Trump entourage, too.
Although Trump has so far disclosed nothing, his pick for National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, verbalized of “another step up the escalation ladder and nobody knows where this is going”.
He did not go as far as some on the Trump team. Donald Trump Jr complained Biden was trying to “get World War Three” going before his father could even boomerang to the White House.
"There's one president at a time," stated state department spokesman Matthew Miller "When the next president takes office, he can make his own decisions.”
Some Republicans have advocated Biden’s move, although Sen Lindsay Graham declared he should have done it “to facilitate Ukraine and he’s playing politics with it”.
Russia’s reaction may or may not be an empty threat.
Under its revised nuclear doctrine, Moscow will now be capable to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries that are supported by nuclear powers, and if it comes under “massive” air attack, too.
Alexander Yermakov from the Russian International Affairs Council reports the change is not so much as an operational manual for using nuclear weapons, but “primarily it serves as a declaration to potential adversaries, outlining the scenarios in which such measures could be considered”.
Another message from Putin to the West, then.
Tatiana Stanovaya believes it is not that he needs to start World War Three, but because “he believes he must scare the Western elites to show they are playing with fire”.
What happens beyond January is anyone's guess.
Kremlin insiders have already begun briefing about their minimal needs from any Trump initiative to terminate the war, and Volodymyr Zelensky has begun making his position clear too.
Asked in a US TV interview what would happen to Ukraine if Washington slashed military aid, he was clear: "If they will cut, I suspect we will lose. Of course, anyway, we will stay and we will fight. We have production, but it’s not enough to prevail."
Putin insists Ukraine will have to remain neutral for any relations to work, even though it is now part of Ukraine’s constitution to join both Nato and the European Union.
A Reuters news agency say on Wednesday cited Russian officials revealing Putin might be open to pulling out from relatively small patches of territory but nothing bigger.
Zelensky on Tuesday presented his 10-point “resilience plan” to parliament, and one defiant message rang out in the Verkhovna Rada more than most.
“Maybe Ukraine will have to outlive someone in Moscow in impose to secure all its goals... to restore the full integrity of Ukraine.”
One day Russia would be without Putin, in other words, but Ukraine would be going nowhere.
For Ukrainians that wait could take years, reveals Mykhaylo Samus, but they would never agree to abandoning Crimea or any other territory under Russian occupation.
The most Zelensky might be machinated to sign would be a ceasefire without commitments, he believes. Anything else would lead to internal oppose as many would view it as a betrayal.
Ahead of any verbalises Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv believes the key is to hamper any major Russian improvement in the east.
Regards to BBC
Category: World-News
Tag: Russia and US battle for advantage in Ukraine war ahead of Trumpx27s return
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Published 11/21/2024