A few days before the presidential election in the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the political parties rounded up political campaigns. With this, it could be considerate to weigh the possible performance index by the major political parties in the contest, particularly in the Northwest geopolitical zone.
Considerably, four of the political parties in the presidential contest are known to have a wide range of acceptability by the electorates. These include the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party and the newly formed New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
It is important to also state that the Northwest geopolitical zone has seven states which include Kano, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto State
Predominantly, Northwest is strongly an APC zone and the party is expected to win with a wide margin in the region. Although there may be a slight deviation in the voting pattern of the region.
Jigawa and Zamfara States are no-go areas for other political parties than APC. In fact, the situation in Zamfara State places APC in a position of going into the election with almost, no opposition. All the warning members of the party have reunited themselves and with the circumstances that surrounded how the party became the ruling party, APC has no opposition in Zamfara state.
NNPP is very popular in Kano because of the high acceptability of its presidential candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso. Likewise, APC is strong, being the ruling party with an established structure. PDP is considerably weak in Kano while Labour Party is not existing in the state.
APC will win Kano but the winning margin would be determined base on the position of NNPP members on whether to forge ahead or give its support to APC as speculated.
Kaduna State will be won by APC but with split votes on the Southern part of the state. Southern Kaduna would split their votes for APC, PDP, NNPP and the Labour Party while the case in Katsina may not be different.
With the support of President Buhari and Governor Masari, APC will win Katsina though the margin may be determined by whether the cabals dump their speculated support for the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. The most important here is that the cabals would want to close rank with APC in Katsina just to give the people the impression to believe the party's candidate is not supported by President Buhari.
The election in Kebbi State would be too close to the call as APC and PDP may have a neck-to-neck contest in the state. Although APC may have a narrow victory, the margin is not expected to be as wide as the party enjoyed in the previous election in the state. This is a result of unresolved political conflict that rocked APC in Kebbi State which lead to the exit of former governor Adamu Aliero from the party to PDP.
Aliero is considered to be the most-referred politician in Kebbi State and his support base is so wide that the power of incumbency of the state government may need to add extra effort to get him defeated. Besides, the position of Abubakar Malami and his contemporaries who are still nursing grievances of losing the governorship ticket of the party in Kebbi State may add to the opposition against APC in the state.
Sokoto State is considered one of the states that would change the permutations in the Northwest as APC stands a better chance of winning the state. Former Governor Wamakko is the strongest politician in Sokoto State and with the recent defection of the Deputy Governor of the State and some members of the Executive Cabinet of Governor Tambuwwal from PDP to APC, it could have glared that APC will coast to victory in the state with ease.
Looking at the justification, APC stands a better chance of winning the Northwest geopolitical zone while PDP may come second as NNPP stands a chance of coming third and the Labour Party will come to a distant fourth in the region.
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Written by Ejiro Hassan (ejiro)
Published 2/21/2023 8:32:01 PM