How the 2023 Election Will Be Lost and Won in the North Central

NigeriaDecides2023, Nigeria news today
North Central. Photo Credit: Postal Code
A few hours before the Nationwide election, the first could be considered clear to look into the proximity of what dimensions the voting patterns of the electorates will take across the six states in the North Central geopolitical zone.

The northcentral geopolitical zone in Nigeria is made up of Kwara, Niger, Nassarawa, Benue, Kogi, Plateau states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

North Central is sincerely a battleground for the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party as no party may convincingly lay hand on the victory claim in the presidential election.

For instance, APC has a better chance of winning Kwara State but the chance may be frustrated by Bukola Saraki's desperation to take back the state, mostly, at a time now that he is not on the ballot for any electoral contest. This coupled with the crisis that rocked Kwara APC, the ruling party has a chance of winning the state on a narrow margin.

The chances of APC winning in Kogi State is optimal as there is unity among all the major political cliques within the party in the state. The state has been able to successfully manage the preparation for the forthcoming governorship election in the state. There is clear coast for APC to win in Kogi.

However, the situation in Plateau State is different. Plateau, despite being ruled by APC, is predominantly a PDP state. APC has failed to manage its internal crisis in Plateau while the majority of the Christian population in the state has decided to cast their votes for Labour Party based on religion factor. This has created a scenario where a predominantly PDP state which is being ruled by the crisis-riding APC is being penetrated by Labour Party on religious factors. PDP members in the state are united, The ruling APC is divided while Labour Party is in the state to cut votes from both APC and PDP. It is a tough state whose result would be known after the conduct of the election.

Benue State is another battleground where PDP, APC and Labour Party may have another contest that is fierce and critical to be decided on before the poll.

Benue State is being ruled by PDP whose governor has openly given his support to the Labour Party. APC has given is considerably in the state to earn at least 25% of the total votes cast while PDP will have to deploy everything to checkmate the influence of the state governor, simply because the national chairman of the party hails from the state.

Actually, the battle in Benue State is certainly between the Labour Party which has the backing of the State Governor and the PDP with the National Chairman of the party from the state.

Nassarawa State, just like Benue, is a battleground between the Labour Party and the PDP.

PDP is the ruling party in Nassarawa State and the state governor is on good terms with the presidential candidate of the party, but there is a huge overflow of Igbo people from the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

Without deception, Labour Party depends much more on ethnocentric and religious voting strength than the competence and reliability of the candidates. Irrespective of the competence of other candidates, the Igbo people in Nassarawa would checkmate the chances of PDP winning the state.

Likewise, in Abuja, the elitist votes don't always go for the ruling party, most especially if the ruling party does not leave the elites unchecked. So, Abuja is largely a battle between PDP and the Labour Party because the elite would, normally, stand against APC in favour of the PDP while the Igbo population in Abuja will vote for Labour Party to entertain the battle.

Niger State is going to be won by the APC. Although, the overflow of Igbo people from Abuja to Suleja and other Abuja suburbs in Niger State may pose a threat to the APC, predominantly Igbo votes in the affected region have never belonged to the APC but PDP. So, the deviation in the voting pattern in the state is considered a strength of the APC.

Category: Forum
Tag: NigeriaDecides2023 Nigeria news today
Written by Ejiro Hassan (ejiro)
Published 2/24/2023 8:09:48 AM

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